This is a summary of a study (Projections of Primary and Revision Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in the United States from 2005 to 2030) which projects the number of primary and revision total hip and knee arthroplasties to be performed (or at least required to be performed) in the United States through to 2030.
The last decade (1995-2005) has seen a growth in the number of revision total hip arthroplasties and total knee arthoplasties performed in the United States .
The study discovered that these procedures consume at least 27% of the total annual Medicare expenditures for hip and knee replacement.
When one considers the number of years it takes to train surgeons and the complex task of planning for hospital capacity the projections made through this study become very important for policy makers in government, education and industry. Interestingly the study reveals that revision procedures consume greater economic resources than primary procedures.
The study hypothesizes that the demand for total hip and total knee arthroplasties in the United States will increase substantially over the next 25 years.
Data used for the study was obtained from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample-NIS – along with United States census Bureau data to quantify primary and revision arthroplasty rates as a function of age, gender, race and/or ethnicity and census region. Poisson regression was then used to make projections.
The results of the study show that in 2003, the year for which national implant procedure data was available from NIS, a total of 202,500 primary total hip arthroplasties: 36,000 revision total hip arthroplasties and 402,100 primary total knee arthroplasties 32,700 total knee arthroplasties were performed in the United states.
Between 1990 and 2003, the prevalence of primary and revision total hip and knee arthroplasties increased substantially. The projection of primary and revision total joint replacement was found to be highly sensitive to assumptions regarding trends in the prevalence of surgery.
On the basis of the NIS model, the demand for hip and knee replacement procedures is projected to show a substantial increase. Although more revision total hip arthroplasties than revision total knee arthroplasties are currently performed, the number of total knee arthroplasties performed was predicted to outnumber total hip arthroplasty revisions after 2007. The revision burden for total hip replacements was projected to be 16.3% in 2005 and 14.5% in 2030; the revision burden for total knee replacements was projected to be 7.8% in 2005 and 7.2% in 2030.
The results of the study underscore the importance of accounting for changes in the rate of surgery for future projections because the prevalence of surgery is changing rapidly over time.
The study has provided a quantification of the demand for primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasties in the United States through 2030. It projects a massive increase in demand for primary and revision total joint procedures over the next two decades- a demand that to be met , will need to be addressed with a combination of increase in economic resources, operative efficacy, technical capacity(additional surgeons) and implant longevity.
The study did not predict whether future orthopedic treatment technologies or newer non operative interventions can lead to a reduced demand for primary total joint replacements by 2030. It is also undecided on the extent the United States health care system will be able to finance the demand for arthroplasties anticipated in the study.
The Globe Health Tours perspective is that projected growth cannot be managed by organic system growth such as training more doctors at a time when increasing numbers of students are choosing not to practise as doctors because of costs and legal risks. In the United States and Europe the healthcare burden is already a pressure on government finances which will not diminish soon. Looking beyond national borders for healthcare resources will have to form part of the solution and so medical tourism will become a mainstream healthcare practice rather than a marginal adhoc patient process.